NEW DELHI: After it rewrote the grammar of heartland politics by capturing power on its own steam in Uttar Pradesh, BSP was widely reckoned to be

the favourite for at least half of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state. It retained its top seeding till the polls began. But with half the exercise over, a strong consensus seems to be taking shape that the party may not live up to the billing.

Its `secular’ rivals — SP and Congress — believe that BSP is not crossing the 30-seat mark. Even BJP is of the same view, leading to an agreement of sorts that SP may remain the largest group despite a dip in its tally of 37 from the last encounter.

While poll estimates can go wrong and few had the prescience to forecast BSP’s remarkable performance in the assembly polls barely two years ago, there is no mistaking the downward revision of Mayawati’s prospects.

Inputs from three phases of voting in 48 of 80 seats suggest that BSP has not taken the kind of lead in east, around Lucknow and Bundelkhand, as to jump way ahead of others. In fact, BJP and Congress claimed to have waded into what promised to be a bipolar polity, each hoping to net a near-15 figure.

If the projections come to bear, it will not only put paid to Mayawati’s aspiration to be the first Dalit prime minister, it will also mark a blow for Left’s plan to have a decisive say in government formation.

The change in the script is being attributed to a drift of Brahmins, whose support was one of the main factors behind Mayawati’s win in assembly polls and the perception that the party had reneged on its pledge to abolish goonda raj. Observers say that while there is nothing to suggest that Brahmins as a constituency have turned their back on the party, BSP has failed to emerge as their natural preference. The community is voting strategically, casting fresh glances at BJP and Congress.

The turnaround on law and order with Mayawati courting dons and glamourising them as Robin Hoods — at least in the case of Mukhtar Ansari — has put off people who trusted the party for its “ chadh goondon ki chhati par, mohar lagegi haathi par ” battle cry.

Bahujan hopefuls don’t agree, arguing they are set to benefit from Muslim and EBC mobilisation behind SCs. The low polling will favour BSP because its committed voters will turn out in any case giving it an edge in close contests. The party also fancies its chances in 17 reserved seats which have a higher concentration of dalits.

A low-turnout, strong Muslim card in eastern and western UP on the back of dalit mobilisation are real imponderables which can play havoc with even informed estimates. At the same time, Congress has inserted itself in the battle and division of votes may cut both ways.

Congress is not waiting for May 16 though, as insiders say, they are gearing up for a partnership with SP, a serious shift coming on the back of the verbal blood-letting that followed the failure of seat-sharing talks. In the assessment of AICC, SP’s score will almost rival what Mayawati may notch up.

The strategists will, of course, have to rush to the drawing board if BSP defies the fresh projections to return with a tally of 40-odd seats. They are unlikely to be deterred by either BSP’s membership of the Third Front or that the dalit outfit poses a long-term threat because of its ambition to become the sole vehicle of dalit assertion across the country. Every MP this time would be valued in the absence of big allies like RJD, DMK and Left.

If Congress is forgetting the bitterness to plump for SP in a haste, it is also because Mulayam Singh is expected to be more dependable as a coalition partner if only because of the limited options he has. The SP boss cannot have an overt partnership with BJP while he is wary of Third Front, which he sees as a packed house of ambitious satraps, and is critically dependent on Congress. A Third Front, without Mayawati, can be an option but not that attractive.

Mayawati is just the opposite. The Dalit maverick can play on all power fronts — UPA, Third Front and NDA.

With a good number in her bag, she is likely to first explore the leadership option with Third Front — her best bet as Congress and BJP would be scared of ceding a key leadership position to her for fear of its impact on their dalit and Brahmin votebanks nationally. But she can surprise with an innovative arrangement with UPA or NDA.

The BJP performance would decide a lot of things, including SP’s fate. In fact, its ability to tap seats which Mulayam loses from his bunch of 39 would determine how much Congress and BJP pocket. A failure on that score may see SP lose numbers without the commensurate increase in BSP tally. It would be advantage Mulayam. And thereby Congress.