Some sitting MPs are expected to retain their seats with ease while others face a tougher task. Some will seek to regain a seat they had once lost. A look at how equations stand in the city’s seats Mumbai South
Uphill task for Congress’ Deora
With the contours of the constituency having changed post- delimitation, it is an uphill task for Congress MP Milind Deora, who is taking on Shiv Sena MP Mohan Rawle. MLA Bala Nandgaonkar of the MNS and the BSP's Muhammed Ali Shaikh may end up being spoilers for the Sena and Congress respectively and eventually influence the outcome decisively. Banker Meera Sanyal and the Samajwadi Party's Maulana Athar Ali may also hurt Congress. The voter profile here is extremely fragmented and the outcome will depend on votes candidates can lure from their opponents or their allies. The Congress is counting on the MNS to make inroads into the Sena's Marathi vote base, which is said to be over six lakh. The Sena on the other hand is counting on Sanyal to get support from elite voters, especially in the post-26/11 scenario and on Shaikh and Ali eating into the substantial chunk of Muslim and Dalit votes of Congress . The saffron party is also hoping for the support of a section of NCP activists against Nandgaonkar, who had defeated Deputy Chief Minister Chhagan Bhujbal from Mazgaon in 1995 and his son Pankaj in 2004. Much also depends on which way the Gujarati and Marwadi voters sway.
Mumbai South-Central
Odds favour Cong veteran Gaikwad
With four Congress MLAs in his constituency, sitting Congress MP Eknath Gaikwad has found a supportive party machinery working during his campaign, a luxury not many Congress candidates in Mumbai had. Also, delimitation has dealt him a favourable set too, with Anushakti Nagar (most of what was earlier the Trombay Assembly segment) and Chembur (represented by cabinet minister in the state government Chandrakant Handore) both being Congress dominated areas. A Dalit leader who's built a reputation as easily approachable, Gaikwad finds favour among not only Dharavi's slumdwellers but also the Dalit pockets in other slum areas in South-Central, including Wadala and Antop Hill.
What's more, with the exception of Dadar and parts of Parel that are dominated by Maharashtrians, the rest of the constituency is a cosmopolitan mix of Gujaratis, Tamilians, north Indians, Parsis and Punjabis. That means Sena candidate Suresh Gambhir, the sitting Mahim MLA, has had only a narrow appeal.
Mumbai North-Central
Cong’s Dutt still on top, but only just
In the by-polls, the Congress's Priya Dutt had won with a stunning margin of 1.71 lakh votes. But that was when sympathy votes had poured en masse from her late father Sunil Dutt's loyalists. This time, Priya is still the leading contender but has faced problems as the number of her loyal band of followers seem to have waned. For one, many of the six MLA's from her constituency are disgruntled over what the say is her way of working and this seems to have hurt the intensity of her campaign. Then there is the BSP candidate Haji Ibrahim Shaikh. This former NCP minority cell chief, popularly referred to as Bhaijan, has a great following among Muslims and could end up upsetting the traditional votebank of Congress. To make matters worse, party workers of one of the NCP MLAs in her constituency have been drumming up support for Bhaijan. Not surprisingly, Bhaijan is considered by the Congress as a greater threat than the Sena-BJP candidate Mahesh Jethmalani. Priya's campaign has had the most number of influential political leaders visiting including, NCP chief Sharad Pawar, Congress president Sonia Gandhi, Delhi CM Sheila Dikshit, Maharashtra CM Ashok Chavan, former CMs Vilasrao Deshmukh and Sushil Kumar Shinde.
In the 2007 civic polls in the 40 wards in this constituency, the Congress-NCP had garnered 2.5 lakh votes while the Sena-BJP got 2.1 lakh votes. While Priya is considered the strongest candidate, even 50,000 votes for Bhaijan could prove wrong the most meticulous predictions in her favour.
