No one party knows how the cookie will crumble
THE trumpet has been sounded. Come April-May, India's 714 million people will vote to elect a government that should quicken the pace of development amid global recession and ensure security for its citizens against threats from within and without.
The Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), leading multi-party alliances, have both grown so weak over the years that a two-horse race does not seem possible. A Third Front of the communists and some regional satraps keen to stay away from both is in the offing.
The irony is everyone is reconciled to the "era of coalition". No party is even pretending that it has the capability to win a majority of the 545-seat Lok Sabha, the powerful lower house, on its own.
Even the three alliances are unsure of a clear majority. The election for the 15th Lok Sabha will undoubtedly lead to a post-polls numbers game.
There is a "queen", too, waiting to be crowned. Mayawati, who rules Uttar Pradesh, the largest state that sends 80 lawmakers, is being perceived as a likely winner, should her candidates win more than a half of these seats.
Mayawati is a Dalit, an honourable word for what used to be called "untouchable". This is her fourth term as the chief minister. That she could not complete her earlier terms is testimony of the hostility she attracts because of being a woman and from a lowly social order.
This will be the first election in which a Dalit woman will be making a strong bid for the top job. The doughty lady does have many pockets of influence outside her domain, but none that can significantly add to the number from her home state.
So far, she is keeping her options open and will go with the winner, more likely a grouping that could pitchfork her to the prime minister's chair.
In an earlier era, the main opposition party, the BJP, would have been the main beneficiary of anti-Congress sentiment. Now numerous regional and smaller parties are denying the BJP the opportunity.
Confounding the scenario is the state of the communists and their desperation for a "Third Front" so as to stay relevant in national politics.
Since it withdrew support to the Congress government in July over the India-US nuclear deal, the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) has rushed to embrace Mayawati and Jayalalithaa.
But after showing initial enthusiasm, Mayawati has become cold towards the Left. And Jayalalithaa is now openly courting the Congress in a bid to wean it away from the DMK, the ruling party in Tamil Nadu.
The message sent to the people will matter. The BJP's L.K. Advani has acknowledged, five years after, that "India Shining" was a false slogan.
The Congress' chances of victory are being widely acknowledged. But these could nosedive if the right alliances are not struck.
There is no pan-Indian party or a coalition with nationwide presence. There is also no leader having a pan-Indian image. Atal Bihari Vajpayee is too old and unwell to campaign. Advani, the prime ministerial candidate, is only a year younger, but he is the fittest among the front-runners.
Congress' only crowd-puller is Sonia Gandhi. She has mass appeal despite her halting Hindi, mostly read from Roman script. The Gandhi tag for this daughter-in-law matters politically.
With 25 states involved, one can go on and on. But there is something seriously troubling about this largest democratic exercise on earth that will involve four million civil servants and 2.1 million police and para-military personnel.
N. Bhaskar Rao, a media veteran and chairman of the Centre for Media Studies, says the election will cost Rs100 billion (RM7.24 billion), more than twice what was spent in 2004.
Since the legal expenditure by the government and Election Commission in organising the polls would be Rs25 billion, it is the parties and candidates that will spend three times that sum.
Much of this money will be spent on media campaigns, through advertising in print, the broadcast media and the Internet. Huge contracts are being dished out to major ad agencies to run the campaigns.
There is also the inevitable entertainment slot. The Congress has purchased the exclusive rights of Jai Ho, the song composed by A.R. Rahman from Slumdog Millionaire, which won eight Oscars last month.
The BJP is ahead in extensive use of the Internet with Advani's blog and links to his campaign on many news websites.
The reach of the Internet, like TV, is undoubtedly extensive. But it would be wrong to believe that the silent Indian voter, grown smart through 14 parliamentary and numerous state polls, will decide on the basis of what he sees on the Net or TV.
Then there is the unacknowledged practice of paying the intending voter. No study has been done on this political underbelly, but Rao estimates that the number of voters paid, in cash or kind, could be anything between 30 and 60 per cent.
The polls begin five weeks from now. No one knows how the political cookie will crumble. What could -- one can only say could -- decide the outcome are: the correct forging of alliances that must appear lasting; terrorism, if it can be projected positively, without being shrill; and credible promises of jobs and infrastructure.