The heroes of the Jammu & Kashmir election have to be the father-son duo of Mr Farooq Abdullah and Mr Omar Abdullah. Several times in these columns I had predicted their victory and surely enough they have delivered. Besides them, there were many winners in this election: The Election Commision for a job well done; the PDP won seats in the Valley as did the BJP in Jammu. But it was Mr Farooq Abdullah who went against the tide of communal populism and spoke of national interest —— a bold and courageous move coming from a Valley politician.
This required a great deal of nerve and the Congress has done the right thing by supporting the National Conference. The PDP has done well in electoral terms but Mufti Mohammed Sayeed is well aware that his political stances that suit the Valley are in conflict with national objectives. Electoral rhetoric and governance are two different things and with General election around the corner this is not the time for experiments.
We all get wiser through experience and hindsight but I think that the people of Jammu & Kashmir have produced something special here. They have created history by turning out in record numbers to exercise their franchise (about 62 per cent to be precise) and for the first time in many years we are close to integrating the people of the State into a single entity. The young Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has a difficult job ahead and I wish him and the new generation of leaders in all the three parties —— Mr Omar Abdullah, Mr Rahul Gandhi and Mehbooba Mufti —— the very best. Hopefully their leadership will wash way the past and make way for a better future.
We also have good news on the Pakistani front with Islamabad and the Pakistani Army adopting a more positive approach to the issue of regional terrorism. Whereas on our eastern border the election result in Bangladesh is definitely welcome with Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League achieving a landslide victory there.
I have revised my 2009 General election prediction chart on the basis of current trends and I think we have to watch developments very closely in Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. In Uttar Pradesh although the anti-incumbency trends are visible against the BSP but I doubt if this will go in favour of the SP. Points on law and order and good governance may well go more to the BJP and the Congress, although much will depend on the strength of these two organisations in the State whether they can actually benefit from the changed situation. The given chart has been marginally adjusted vis-à-vis my previous one, but like I said one needs to closely watch the fight between the BSP and the SP in Uttar Pradesh, where things could still change as the election is still four months away. In Andhra Pradesh Opposition unity is still very shaky and the TDP, the TRS and the Left are yet to consolidate their positions. Chiranjeevi and his Praja Rajyam are still struggling with political direction and may well align with the BJP.
The Karnataka by-elections were a serious setback for the Congress and therefore appropriate changes in favour of the BJP have been made in the chart. The situation in Tamil Nadu is fluid and the DMK is in damage-control mode within the family and also with its allies. On the other hand, Ms J Jayalalithaa and the AIADMK have made major gains in the northern part of the State and along with the support of the Left and the BSP is in a strong position.
The Left will lose some seats but seems to be improving, both in West Bengal and in Kerala, although to a lesser degree in the latter. Its alliances with the AIADMK and the TDP will give it a presence in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh respectively and as things stand the Left may end with a tally of close to 50 seats. At present there is little to choose between the UPA and the NDA, and the Left-AIADMK-TDP combine will be a formidable rival to both. And if the BSP were to join this grouping we could be looking at a bloc of 100 seats plus, and without this number neither the NDA nor the UPA can form a Government at the Centre.
Uttar Prdesh with 80 seats will be crucial and it is good to see the BSP attempting to curb the criminal elements within the party. This ailment is not only confined to the BSP alone and even the SP has a great deal to do in this regard. I don’t think that the anti-incumbency trends against the BSP will be very severe in the short term but the SP may well gain in the long run. But both the BJP and the Congress are set to gain ground in the State. Coalition and regional politics have dominated Uttar Pradesh for close to two decades now but this could all change over anither two elections. In politics nothing lasts forever and electoral verdicts are for governance and not for creating personality cults and personal assets.
