The 85 seats in phase four, which could provide a boost for the Congress, provide an occasion to examine the significance of the Dalit vote and its relationship with the party, says Yogendra Yadav Ground reports from the first three phases of elections suggest that the National Democratic Alliance may have stood its ground, while the United Progessive Alliance appears to have slipped a little from where it stood in the last election. That puts the NDA a little ahead of the UPA at this stage in the race, since both alliances had a similar tally from the 372 constituencies that polled so far.
Political commonsense suggests that the BJP may have retained its tally in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and made small gains in Gujarat and Assam and major gains in Jharkhand and Bihar. That should result in net gains for the party, even after offsetting possible small losses in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Orissa. The NDA allies may also be net gainers so far: the loss of the Biju Janata Dal appears to have been compensated by the acquisition of the Asom Gana Parishad and gains for its old partner, the Janata Dal (United).
No major losses The Congress by itself may not have suffered major losses so far. Its losses in Assam, Andhra Pradesh, Jharkhand and Gujarat may be made up by substantial gains in Kerala and Orissa. The real losses for the UPA may have come from the loss of allies like Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Lok Jan Shakti Party and the Telengana Rashtra Samiti. The Congress has simply been unable to fill the gap left by their departure. Similarly the Left is reported to have suffered setbacks both in Kerala and West Bengal. But it can take solace from the reports that the gainers so far are the partners of the Third Front such as the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Telugu Desam Party.
If there is one phase in this election that could provide the UPA with a much needed boost, this is it. Last time, the UPA and the NDA had shared the honours here with a tally of 28 and 30 seats respectively, with the Left getting 14 and the Samajwadi Party 11. The crucial difference this time is that most of the Congress seats are nearly risk-free, while most of the NDA seats are not. The Congress is in a position to poach from the BJP in Rajasthan and the Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab; its ally, the Trinamool Congress, can snatch seats from the Left in Bengal. The Congress needs to win at least 50 in this phase if it wishes to emerge as the single largest party, irrespective of what transpires in Tamil Nadu.
Contiguous belt Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, western U.P. and north-eastern Rajasthan form the largest contiguous belt that has a high concentration of Dalits, even if it does not figure as ‘Dalitland’ in our mental maps. The areas that go to the polls today do not include some of the most concentrated Dalit pockets within these States: North Bengal and Central U.P. went to polls in phase three, while Doaba in Punjab goes to polls in the last phase. Also, the fifth phase has an even higher proportion of Dalits than the fourth. Yet, it is this phase — notable for its diversity — that better lends itself to examine the various faces of Dalit politics in the country.
Conventional wisdom has it that a high concentration of Dalit voters benefits the Congress. But this wisdom applies only in States such as Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab. In these States, the Congress continues to command a big chunk of the Dalit vote, without having promoted a Dalit leadership or pro-Dalit policies. In Rajasthan the Congress enjoyed a lead of over 20 percentage points over the BJP among Dalit voters both in the 2004 Lok Sabha election and the 2008 Assembly election. Add to this, a small lead among Adivasis and the en bloc support of the Muslims and you have its core political constituency. Women and the poor, cutting across caste lines, vote disproportionately for the Congress.
The BJP enjoys an edge among urban, educated, upper caste voters, but this is not large enough a constituency for victory in the absence of a wave.
This settled pattern works to the advantage of the Congress this time. The party finished ahead of the BJP in the recent Assembly election to form a minority government that is now a majority government, thanks to the merger of all BSP MLAs. Going by the voting pattern in the Assembly election, the Congress will pick up 14 seats to the BJP’s 11. But its tally could go up much further if the ruling party gets a confirmation bonus, as the BJP did in a similar situation in 2004. Just a four-point swing in favour of the Congress could give the ruling party all but three seats in the State. The Congress’ prospects have been damaged by some poor candidate selection and not-so-hidden factional fights. But so far, the BJP has not recovered from the December defeat and been unable to set its house in order. The only question is how much of the advantage of early incumbency the Gehlot government can reap.
Not popular In Haryana it is not the incumbent government but the state of the opposition that may come to the rescue of the Congress. Last time, the Congress had won all but one Lok Sabha seat. It can only lose this time. There are many reasons why it should: the Hooda-led government is not very popular and is widely seen to be a pro-Jat regime, one that is not in keeping with the Congress’ support base. The party has gone through a split, with Bhajan Lal forming his Haryana Janhit Congress; and the Indian National Lok Dal, which has a robust rural base, has rejoined the BJP, the party with an urban base. However, with the non-Congress vote splintered among INLD-BJP, the HJC and a resurgent BSP, the Congress might escape lightly. The Dalit vote — of which it secured nearly two-thirds in 2004 — may cut Congress losses significantly.
The limited losses it may suffer in Haryana may be squared up by likely gains in Punjab, though not from this phase. Only four Lok Sabha constituencies that border Haryana and Rajasthan go to polls today and the Shiromani Akali Dal had won three of them last time. While it lost, the Congress retained its hold over Dalit vote in the previous two elections. The BSP is a factor in Punjab, especially in the Doaba region that polls next week, particularly among the Ramdasia community. The Congress draws support from both the Balmikis and the Ramdasias, despite not addressing the real issues of mahadalit communities such as the Balmikis.
Delhi presents the changing face of Dalit politics. The Congress’ hold over the city’s substantial Dalit population was effectively challenged by the BSP in the recent Assembly election, in which it secured 14 per cent of the vote. It expanded its vote share among non-Jatav Dalits, while matching the Congress when it came to the Jatavs.
The Congress survived despite this offensive and led in all the Lok Sabha seats, largely due to a failure of the BJP. Notwithstanding high profile squabbles and the media coverage of the ‘shoe incident,’ there is no indication that this Lok Sabha election will deviate radically from the Assembly verdict. The BJP will try to snatch a seat or two if the BSP continues to cut into Congress votes and the turnout is decent.
Class dimension West Bengal reveals the class dimension of Dalit politics. The Left Front has performed consistently well among Scheduled Caste constituencies and secured a higher vote share among Dalits than the rest of the population. This is partly a result of class mobilisation among agricultural labour. But it is also partly a tendency on the part of the marginalised sections to go with the establishment. This is under challenge in the 17 predominantly rural constituencies of South Bengal that go to polls today. The Trinamool Congress seeks to mount a spirited attack in this heartland of Left dominance. The Congress-Trinamool alliance needs a substantial swing of five to seven percentage points to hurt the Left.
The Congress has a presence in Muslim-dominated areas and could convert the subdued disaffection among the Muslims for the Left into an electoral advantage. Yet it is premature to write off the Left, especially the CPI(M) with its extraordinary organisational strength and depth. The contest for Dalit vote here is a part of the larger battle for political dominance in rural Bengal.
Political strategy It is in Uttar Pradesh that we see the new face of post-Congress Dalit politics. If Dalit politics is more powerful in this State than other States with a greater proportion of Dalit votes, it is due to the political strategies adopted by the BSP. In the last few elections, the BSP has come to secure nearly three-fourths of the Dalit vote in U.P. But its success is due to the ability to add other communities to this core vote. The 18 constituencies in the upper Doab that go to the polls in this phase comprise the SP’s traditional area of strength, a region where it hopes to benefit from the informal and controversial alliance with Kalyan Singh. The BJP on the other hand is confident that its alliance with Ajit Singh will pay dividends in some of these constituencies. But the BSP is very much in the race having chosen its candidates strategically on the basis of caste.
(Yogendra Yadav is a Senior Fellow at the CSDS, Delhi and the Editor of Samayik Varta. Contact: yogendra.election @gmail.com)
