The fate of election candidates in Ahmadabad is in the hands of the middle class voters. If BJP retains these seats, it would be only loyalty towards Modi, but failure of AMC administration will make the margins dangerously low.

Two novice doctors are challenging a seasoned candidate of Congress Shailesh Parmar from the newly formed Ahmedabad west constituency. Shailesh is son of Manubhai Parmar, a veteran leader of Congress and has won the assembly seat for two consecutive terms against the tide of Modism in 2002 and 2007.

BJP candidate Dr Kirit Solanki’s name was unknown till the list of candidates was announced, though he was with doctor’s cell of the party for two decades. He is head of the Surgery department of NHL medical college. To make the third angle to the contest is another doctor Pravin Solanki, who is BSP candidate. He is going to remain at the third place but would eat away some votes of each of the main contenders.

Ellisbridge and the Chief Minister’s constituency – Maninagar fall under this seat and are likely to give lead to Kirit Solanki. On the other side, Dani Limda, Shaher Kotda, Dariyagunj, etc, have sizeable votes of minority and dalits, where Parmar will emerge leader. It has about 2.5 lakh SC voters and 3.5 lakh Muslim votes. This equation makes situation tilted in favour of Congress.

But 2005 municipal elections and 2007 assembly election results reveal that against all propaganda, a sizeable minority votes go to BJP. The Muslims are happy with Modi administration as post 2002 there has been complete peace in the city, which had a track record of communal violence. When city was under curfew, they were suffering most as majority of Muslim population is engaged either in small businesses or is a part of unorganised labour force.

Shailesh is holding the baton of Manubhai’s legacy, who has personal support of the electorates irrespective of the party. This loyalty had paid to Parmar in last two assembly elections. Thus, which way six lakh voters will move is unpredictable. Parmar had won assembly election by defeating Jitu Waghela of BJP.

There was some dissidence over his nomination within the party. Disgruntled corporator from AMC's Rakhial ward, Ratna Vora filed her candidature as an independent candidate. The constituency has many migrants from from north Gujarat, which would go in favour of Kirit Solanki who is also from Mehsana district.

Only a week left to go for the polling, BSP candidate has not left the impact to give tough fight to the main contenders. He is relying more on the caste factor and the magic of Mayavati. Yet, the possibility of him taking away a sizeable votes from the both is there. Republican Party of India (A)’s B Javade is also contesting on the hope to get some support of dalit community.

The general seat of Ahmedabad (East) has reverse arithmetic where Congress has fielded new face Deepak Babaria against six-time MP Harin Pathak of the BJP. His accessibility to the general public, contacts with grassroots party workers and his proximity to BJP's prime ministerial candidate LK Advani, will work in his favour. The only factor working against him is that his name was not there in the list proposed by Modi for Gujarat. He got nomination against the will of Modi, so even if he wins the margins this time will be thin.

Deepak Babariya is a chemical engineer by profession and has worked for the cause of distressed diamond workers and slum rehabilitation in Ahmadabad, This brings proximity to the 40 per cent voters of the constituency. In Nikol and Bapunagar areas, he is sure to get the lead.

Compared with other states, Gujarat might look having lower crime rates, yet the graph is looking upward. Incidents of chain snatching, rape, theft, murder and suicide are on rise. Modi has been very effective in building the infrastructure and keeping communal harmony intact but has failed to put corruption in police department under control. Public has to face same apathy to lodge complaint in police station as in any other states.

The police seems to have least interest in cracking theft cases and small incidents of chain snatching. This whole month was full of such incidents and police was unable to nab the culprits.

Mysterious death of two kids in Asharam Bapu’s ashram is another issue where public has felt that the state government is trying to cover up the matter instead of taking tough measures against the office bearers of the Ashram.

Kankaria lake beautification, Bus Rapid Transit System and river front project have left positive impact in the eyes of public, but due to number of development activities going on simultaneously in the city traffic and drainage system has been failing in most parts of Ahmadabad east as well as west part. The hurry to complete the project has made the roads difficult to drive. Many of the middle class voters are annoyed by it. This is the middle class voter in the city, who would decide the fate of the candidates. If BJP retains these seats, it would be only loyalty towards Modi, but failure of AMC administration will make the margins dangerously low.