By Sachidananda Murthy Photo: Sanjay Ahlawat Who would be the next Prime Minister of India? That would be the biggest debate in 2009 as the world's largest democracy gets ready for the Lok Sabha elections. The pattern of Assembly elections in 2008 has sent a mixed and confusing signal. After a string of reverses, the Congress has had a late bounce as Sheila Dikshit's remarkable victory in Delhi showed that there is still life left in the ruling party and its coalition, the United Progressive Alliance. Though Congressmen would like to see Rahul Gandhi as Prime Minister, the present indicators are that it would be Manmohan Singh who would get the baton if the UPA manages majority. There would be tremendous clamour for Sonia Gandhi or Rahul to lead the UPA. Manmohan, who even Congressmen say is not a charismatic leader, would be a big hero if his government's performance returns the Congress to power. The UPA's victory would lead to Rahul's entry into the government with a mass contact ministership, either of rural development or of human resource development. The Bharatiya Janata Party has repeatedly said it has only one candidate in L.K. Advani, and that it would not support any other person. The BJP does not want even to discuss a scenario where it would have to support another party to keep the Congress out of power. It is Advani for the top job or we will sit in the opposition, is the BJP refrain now. But elections are still months away. As far as the Third Front is concerned, the choice starts with Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati, who had projected herself as the alternative to Manmohan during the July 2008 parliamentary crisis, but any leader of the front's present and future partners like AIADMK general secretary J. Jayalalithaa, Telugu Desam Party president Chandrababu Naidu, West Bengal Chief Minister and CPI(M) leader Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee could emerge based on respective strengths, and the antipathy to other candidates. Then there are the political theorists who feel that parties within the UPA and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance could come out to join a third front, and that could throw up newer faces. One popular name is that of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who has managed the state's affairs better than Rabri Devi, and has experience as a Union minister. Mulayam Singh Yadav and Lalu Prasad Yadav have their own ambitions. Compared to 1996, the prime ministership in 2009 is a very difficult job, as the challenges faced by India are far more complex. Governance of India needs a strong political majority, which only can provide the brains and the muscle for solving the problems. The major challenge for Sonia, Advani and CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat-the leaders of the key parties in the three fronts-would be forging alliances that can appeal to the voters across regional borders. The UPA starts on a stronger wicket as far as nationwide presence is concerned. On paper, the Congress and its allies are in a fighting position in about 430 constituencies, which do not fall in Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. But their strength is not evenly matched in these constituencies. The Congress on its own will fight its opponents in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Assam, Orissa, Karnataka and the smaller states and Union territories which have one or two seats. The oldest political party has strong regional partners in Bihar (Rashtriya Janata Dal and Lok Janshakti), Jharkhand (Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and RJD), Maharashtra (Nationalist Congress Party), Tamil Nadu (DMK and PMK), and Kerala (Muslim League and Kerala Congress). But in some states, the opponents now have the upper hand like the BJP in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka, and the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front in Kerala. The UPA can increase its seats in Uttar Pradesh if it has a pre-poll alliance with the Samajwadi Party, and in West Bengal with the Trinamool Congress. If the Congress is on its own in these two large states-UP has 80 seats and West Bengal, 42-then its tally may just reach double figures. The Samajwadi Party (earlier Janata Party/Janata Dal) and the Congress have been bitterly opposed to each other in the last three decades. Even the last Assembly elections in UP saw Rahul targeting the leadership of Mulayam Singh Yadav. But that election had a dramatic impact on both the parties. The SP was relegated to the opposition, while the Congress came a cropper. Back-line communications between Rahul and SP general secretary Amar Singh caused a dramatic turnaround in their relations. The SP supported the Indo-US civil nuclear deal and went with the UPA in the July vote of confidence. While there was expectation that the SP would be invited to join the UPA, the relationship did not get formalised, and there are tortuous seat-sharing negotiations going on. Mulayam wants to contest a lion's share of the seats, so that he would become a key player in a hung Lok Sabha. He wants the Congress support in a limited fashion, which would contain his rival Mayawati, who is banking on Uttar Pradesh to give her a large number of MPs. The relationship between the Congress and Mamata Banerjee is no less complicated in West Bengal, even after the CPI(M) withdrew support to the UPA government. Mamata is happy that her rival is against the Congress. But then her bargaining position is down because she is the sole member of her party in the present Lok Sabha. Mamata can be a fierce campaigner against the CPI(M). But some Congress managers feel that the UPA would need the CPI(M) in case of a hung Lok Sabha. Mamata would not easily be a party to such an arrangement. Compared to the UPA, the NDA has far less geographical area under its influence. It has strong chances against its opponents in 280 constituencies. The BJP is strong in Himachal Pradesh, Jammu region, Delhi, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Uttarakhand and Karnataka. It has regional allies in Punjab (Akali Dal), Haryana (Indian National Lok Dal), Maharashtra (Shiv Sena), Orissa (Biju Janata Dal), Assam (Assam Gana Parishad) and Bihar (Janata Dal United). The NDA is weak in UP, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. The worrisome state is UP, which used to give 50-plus MPs for Atal Bihari Vajpayee to form the government in three Lok Sabha elections. The BJP has no ally in UP and it has declined precipitously in the largest state of the country, as its voters have moved to the Bahujan Samaj Party in the last Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. A strong performance in UP is the tonic the BJP needs badly. The home state of party president Rajnath Singh is the make or break state. Enthusing the voters about Advani as the real successor to the hugely charismatic Vajpayee is the Himalayan challenge to the BJP's election planner. Unlike in other north Indian states, anti-incumbency sentiments against the UPA, if any, would be reaped by Mayawati rather than the BJP. The ageing leadership of the party in UP has to come up with a magic formula. Strong alliances in Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal had helped Vajpayee become the only coalition Prime Minister to win a clear majority through pre-poll alliances. All other coalitions-led by V.P. Singh to Manmohan Singh and including Vajpayee's 13-month government-depended on post-poll arrangements for majority. But Advani is not so fortunate, as Mamata in Bengal, Naidu in Andhra Pradesh, and DMK/PMK in Tamil Nadu are in no mood to return to the NDA. Even Jayalalithaa, who had supported the BJP in some issues like Ram Sethu, has preferred the Communists. The only hope for the BJP is Telugu actor Chiranjeevi and his fledgling Prajarajyam party. But he is yet to respond to the BJP's overtures. Thanks to the weakness on the ground in five major states which account for 223 seats, the NDA needs total victories in other states if it has to attract unattached parties and keep Advani in reckoning. The Third Front is still in an amorphous state. Smaller parties like the INLD of Om Prakash Chautala and the AGP have deserted it for the NDA. Its present strength lies in West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura through Left parties, Uttar Pradesh through the BSP, Tamil Nadu through the AIADMK, Andhra Pradesh through the Telugu Desam Party and Telengana Rashtra Samiti, and Karnataka through the Janata Dal (Secular). But a total sweep in these states is unlikely, which means Karat will have to work hard to expand the demography and geography of the yet-to-be-named front. The Indian voter can throw up surprises as he has done in successive elections. But whoever inherits the government during next summer would face the challenge of a fragile economy, which is receiving booster doses. The World Bank has forecast a growth of above 5 per cent next year for India, which still is a faster growth rate than many other economies. Despite the brave assertion of the UPA government that it would tackle the effects of the economic meltdown through economic stimulus, jobs are getting lost by the thousands in critical sectors like textiles, realty, steel mining and engineering industries, and across a host of small and medium enterprises, as demand for garments, houses and other goods has slowed in global markets. The loss of value of mutual funds and other financial instruments has rendered thousands of financial assistants, who sold the mutual funds, jobless. The Mumbai terror attack has laid low the tourism industry, which was already reeling under cancellations due to the slowdown. Job retention and avoidance of salary cuts in the private sector are a major challenge for the rulers of 2009, especially as government employees across the board got huge salary increases in 2008. But the private and unorganised sectors are the worrisome areas for a future Prime Minister, as large-scale migration to urban areas has taken place in the last two decades. Large unemployment could lead to social unrest. Interestingly, when the economy has taken a downturn, relations with Pakistan, too, have dipped. When India faced the balance of payments crisis in 1990, the proxy war in Kashmir was launched full scale. Again, when the economy stuttered during the meltdown of southeast Asian economies in the late 1990s, Kargil invasion was planned and implemented. Now the economic meltdown is accompanied by increased terror attacks on Indian cities. As the Indian economy is tied to the global economy, the new government will have to work with the global powers. Barack Obama's presidency in the US will begin in January with a lot of hope and anxiety. While Obama wants to kick-start the economy, the state of the American financial institutions is a matter of deep concern for the rest of the world. Plus, he is determined to scale up the war against al Qaeda inside Afghanistan and Pakistan, which can either calm up the region or make it more volatile. Any further instability in Pakistan would need a strong response from Indian leadership. Internal and external security becomes even more challenging in such a situation as there would be challenge from the Pakistan army as well as terrorist organisations operating from that country. In case a government that depends on the support of the Left parties comes to power, then the pro-American foreign policy of Manmohan Singh itself would change direction. The Left parties, which dumped the UPA on the issue of strategic relationship with the United States, would insist on a U-turn on both economic and foreign policies. Such a reversal would jolt the existing order, with no one able to predict the consequences. If the UPA returns to power, then there will be no change. If Advani becomes the Prime Minister, there will be less dramatic changes. Campaign themes themselves would differ from party to party. The UPA would focus on the massive development programmes it has taken up for the common man like the Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, which is now available in all the states. The Bharat Nirman Programme, for which more than Rs 1 lakh crore has been spent, would be another showpiece. The Congress would be wooing its votebank of dalits, tribals, minorities and OBCs as it has taken up projects aimed at them. The victory of chief ministers who had strong development platforms like Narendra Modi (Gujarat), Sheila Dikshit (Delhi), Shivraj Singh Chauhan (Madhya Pradesh) and Raman Singh (Chhattisgarh) would make Sonia and Manmohan focus on development. The NDA and the Third Front would focus on the failure of the UPA in certain areas. But there would be major differences in the emphasis. The BJP has already made it clear that it would focus on the twin issues of security and inflation. When the party could not win Delhi and Rajasthan despite strong campaign that Congress was soft on terror, the media suggested that terrorism would not work with the voter. But Advani, who prides himself as the Iron Man of India, feels otherwise. He would focus on how India needs a determined government to tackle Pakistan, which he calls the epicentre of terrorism. The BJP is also mulling whether it should pay back the Congress in its own coin by having a campaign that would ask: What did the aam aadmi (the common man) get from the Congress? The Congress had upset Vajpayee's calculations with this campaign in 2004. The Third Front parties would do it differently. Jayalalithaa would focus on the failures of the DMK at the national and state levels, as she wants to exploit the anti-incumbency factor against Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi. As there would be Assembly elections also in Andhra Pradesh, Congress Chief Minister Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy would be the target of attack for Telugu Desam, Telengana Rashtra Samiti and Chiranjeevi. For Mayawati it would be a projection that only she can solve the problems by strong governance, and she would target both the Congress and the Samajwadi Party. Mamata has her bete noir Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee. Politics would be very different in 2009 as internal and external security, development and economy would dominate the debates and decisions of both the voters and the new rulers. |
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