By M.R. Narayan Swamy

New Delhi, April 28 : Tamil Nadu's political circus over the Sri Lankan conflict is a virtual copy of the 1980s but for a key difference: the Tamil Tigers were poised to grow then; now they face a deathly crisis.

Once anti-Tamil riots engulfed Colombo in July 1983, the same DMK and AIADMK - the latter ruled Tamil Nadu then - took on one another to show who supported Sri Lanka's Tamils more.

DMK chief M. Karunanidhi was the opposition leader at that time and M.G. Ramachandran or MGR was the AIADMK chief minister.

Riding on the sympathy wave for the ordinary Sri Lankan Tamils, whose plight in 1983 was equally pitiable, MGR quickly took the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) under his protective wings.

LTTE chief Velupillai Prabhakaran was an unknown figure just then. A quick learner, he grasped the ways of the Indian political system. Once in the good books of MGR, he ignored Karunanidhi, immensely pleasing MGR.

Proximity to MGR provided a shield vis-�-vis the central government, which the Congress headed even then.

Slighted by Prabhakaran, Karunanidhi showered his favours on a rival Tamil militant leader who the LTTE gunned down in 1986.

But once MGR died in 1987, by when the LTTE had taken on the Indian Army in Sri Lanka's northeast, Prabhakaran extended a hand of friendship to Karunanidhi who eagerly grasped it.

Karunanidhi returned to power in Tamil Nadu in 1989, and immediately turned pro-LTTE. The Tigers had a free run in Tamil Nadu. New Delhi axed his government in January 1991.

So, when the LTTE assassinated former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1991, the DMK paid a heavy price for its links with the Tigers. It was wiped out in the assembly elections.

The AIADMK reaped the political harvest and embraced a stridently anti-LTTE line. Chief Minister Jayalalitha ordered a sweeping police crackdown, breaking up the painstakingly built LTTE network across the state.

Amid popular revulsion over Gandhi's killing, the Tigers went into a shell in Tamil Nadu.

It took some years before Vaiko, who broke away from the DMK to form the MDMK, and PMK's chief S. Ramadoss to start speaking for the Tigers, and vocally too.

In 1997, the Congress pulled down the coalition government of Prime Minister Inder Kumar Gujral over the DMK's alleged links to the killing of Rajiv Gandhi. In her next stint as chief minister, Jayalalitha jailed Vaiko, then a Lok Sabha member, for 19 long months over a pro-LTTE speech.

Today, the wheels have turned in Tamil Nadu, almost a full circle.

Jayalalitha and Vaiko are now allies. Jayalalitha has declared that only an independent Tamil Eelam state will end Sri Lanka's conflict. The Congress is today a DMK ally.

The DMK is neither here nor there vis-�-vis the Tamil Eelam cause. Even as he sounds pro-LTTE, Tiger supporters spew venom at Karunanidhi.

More than two decades after it earned the LTTE's wrath for signing an accord with Sri Lanka to end Tamil separatism, the Congress is again at the receiving end for pursuing a pro-Colombo policy.

The LTTE in the 1980s was a guerrilla group whose future growth into one of the world's deadliest insurgent outfits no one had predicted.

The same Tigers are now battling for survival.

But then as now, Tamil Nadu, separated from Sri Lanka by a strip of sea, has proved to be a lifeline for the LTTE.

Tirunelveli / Coimbatore, Apr 19 : Regional Tamil Nadu leaders have slammed New Delhi’’s stand on the raging war in Sri Lanka.

All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) party chief J. Jayalalitha said that Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi had failed to stop the ethnic killings of Tamils in the island nation.

“India has been supporting the Lankan Government’’s war against the Tamils there. Karunanidhi has not done anything except for dramas like sending telegrams and letters to the Prime Minister and holding fast. He is only interested in the welfare of his own family,” Jayalalitha said while addressing a public rally in Tirunelveli on Saturday.

Senior leader of Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) party S. Ramadoss said that New Delhi has asked the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) to release the civilians rather than calling upon Colombo to cease hostilities.

“External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee had called upon the LTTE to release all the civilians under their control. This is actually the voice of Sri Lankan President MahindaRajapakse. And now, Karunanidhi is repeating the same voice as if the LTTE has kept all the civilians under their control. This statement is like cheating the world, as what Rajapakse is doing now,” S Ramadoss said.

India asked Sri Lanka on Friday to extend a pause in war hostilities to enable civilians trapped in the conflict to leave for secure areas, saying the fate of Tamils could not be ignored.

Indian politicians face pressure to protect Sri Lankan Tamils, who are closely linked to about 60 million Tamils in Tamil Nadu.

In Tamil Nadu, it's the Queen Bee who's first off the block. AIADMK Chief Jayalalithaa kick started her election campaign in Chennai ahead of her arch rival Karunanidhi.

The AIADMK Chief may have ruled out Prime Ministerial ambitions, but she is clearly aiming to be kingmaker with her candidates from her new found rainbow coalition."Whoever Tamil Nadu points to, only that person can become PM.

Vote with that aim in mind," she said.Speaking from a stage that is designed like the Indian Parliament, Jayalalithaa launched a blistering attack on Karunanidhi.

And almost a lakh followers there were ecstatic throughout her emotional speech."Karunanidhi puts his family interests above Tamil Nadu's interests.

In my case, I have no family," Jayalalitha said.If Jayalalithaa focused on the DMK Government's failures in Tamil Nadu, her allies like the CPM did not spare the Congress.

"The Prime Minister ridiculed regional parties but his UPA government survived on regional parties' support.

The only thing the Congress and DMK have is money power and they are trying to do a Thirumangalam in the whole of Tamil Nadu," said Prakash Karat.

However, with Jayalalithaa, an opponent of the banned Tigers, on the same stage, Vaiko toned down his speech.

There was no mention of the LTTE. Neither were there any inflammatory remarks like his recent outbursts for which he was booked for sedition.

LUCKNOW: Mayawati is to UP what Jayalalithaa is to Tamil Nadu. Although both are alike in individuality and personality, yet chances of their sailing the same 'Third Front' boat in the post-election phase seem to be only guesswork.

Reason for this is not far to seek. While AIADMK boss Jayalalithaa conveniently skipped the dinner hosted by BSP supremo Mayawati for members of the Third Front at her New Delhi residence on March 15, the latter showed no hurry in opening a direct communication with the former.

Mayawati talked tough when asked whether she had any plan to meet Jayalalithaa during her campaign trail in southern states. "I have no plan for a dialogue, communication or hold a meeting with Jaya during my election meetings in the south," Mayawati said, adding "I am not going to waste my time like this."

"I am going to campaign for my party candidates and will not exchange any pleasantry or courtesy call by anybody," Mayawati clarified and said "any talk of alliance would be held only after election."

Mayawati's assertion is typical of her temperament, which is somewhat similar to that of Jaya. Ready to 'kill' and ready to 'defy,' as an independent observer describes them, the two women are a rolling success in their own ways and style. Despite representing different stock, the two have much in common.

'Amma' (Jayalalithaa) is a highbrow Brahmin leading a folk of Other Backward Classes (OBC) and Dalit communities, 'Behanji (Mayawati) is a Dalit, leading her flock of Brahmins apart from Dalits and OBCs. Both entered politics and carved a niche for themselves courtesy their charismatic mentors -- MG Ramachandran for Jayalalithaa and Kanshiram for Mayawati. Perhaps the most striking similarity between them is that both are facing corruption charges, including ones for holding assets disproportionate to their known sources of income.

Aggressive, agile, calculative and impulsive, the two are extremely clear-headed with a fancy for showing off. If it's birthdays-in-style for Mayawati, Jayalalithaa is famous for her fancy wardrobes. And in style of functioning, they are a scare for bureaucracy. Likewise, the two are ruthless when it comes to trampling their opponents. They also have the distinction of being the first women CMs to use POTA against their political adversaries -- MDMK MP Vaiko in Tamil Nadu and former minister and MLA, Raghuraj Pratap Singh and his father Udai Pratap Singh in UP.

An ally of the BJP in the past, they did what the BJP had been unable to do for its Hindu agenda. This is evident by the ban imposed on conversion of religion in Tamil Nadu and cow slaughter in UP.

However, similarities and dissimilarities apart, nobody can take Amma or Behanji for granted. Personal traits and overpowering ego-ride often defies political logic. In this backdrop, it will be not be a surprise if only one of them joins the 'Third Front.'

NEW DELHI - AIADMK chief J. Jayalalitha was in ‘constant communication’ and was involved in the alliance of non-Congress and non-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) parties, Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) general secretary Prakash Karat said Monday.

‘The AIADMK is involved with us. She was not here in the meeting. But they are involved. We are in constant communication with them,’ Karat told reporters after releasing his party’s manifesto on the elections.

Though Jayalalitha was not present at the meeting of the Third Front Sunday, her party’s representative and Rajya Sabha member V. Maithreyan attended the gathering of the Left parties and their alliance partners Sunday afternoon.

However, he did not attend the dinner hosted by Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati in which the Third Front discussed the Lok Sabha election strategies.

Chennai, March 16 : AIADMK boss and former Tamil Nadu chief minister J. Jayalalitha Monday said she was not in the race to be prime minister, “at least for now”, and that the Third Front grouping has a “bright future”.

“While we are not in the race for the prime minister’s post, at least for now, our opinion that the prime minister should be elected only after the elections remains unchanged. Anyone can aspire to be prime minister because someone has to be the leader after all,” Jayalalitha told reporters.

“The need of the hour for the nation is a political grouping that is equidistant from the Congress and the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party). In our opinion, the Third Front has bright future,” the Leader of Opposition in the state assembly said.

Asked to react to the prime ministerial ambitions of BSP leader Mayawati and Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar, she said: “Those are the opinions of the parties concerned.”

She was speaking to media persons at her residence after handing over a cheque for Rs.21.2 million to officials from the International Committee of the Red Cross.

The meeting is being seen as a move to pave the way for her Prime Ministerial aspirations. After sending an emissary for the launch of the third front, the UP Chief Minister had reportedly conveyed her ambition to lead a non-UPA, non-NDA govt at the centre to the other parties in the alliance.

While the leaders of four Left parties, TDP, TRS, JD(S) and AIADMK among others have consented to be present at the dinner meeting, the BJD, which recently snapped ties with BJP but kept away from Tumkur, is also expected to join the dinner meeting.

BSP national general secretary S C Mishra while addressing a rally of the Third Front in Dobespet on March 12, Karnataka, had said that “it is the aim of BSP to make Mayawati the Prime Minister”.

Even JD(S), which is a constituent of the Third Front, has said that Mayawati was acceptable to it as Prime Ministerial candidate, if others agree. 

JD(S) chief H D Deve Gowda had told reporters after the March 12 rally that “the Front will decide on the PM candidate when the right time comes.” He, however, on being asked about Mayawati’s chances said had that “we have no problems with her if others agree”.

The meeting is also take up the Front’s National Policy Document, which Gowda said is supposed to be finalised by this month end. The Third Front consists of four Left parties, JD(S), TDP, TRS, AIADMK, BSP and Haryana Janhit Congress.

BJD has agreed to join front, claims Gowda
Political situation in country is “fluid”

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BANGALORE, Mar 13 : The third front, a coalition of the Left parties, the Janata Dal (Secular), the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) and the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), received a shot in the arm with Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supremo and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati deciding to send a representative to attend the front’s formal launch at Dobbespet, near Bangalore, on Thursday.

JD(S) supremo and former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda told The Hindu that Ms. Mayawati had agreed to send Satish Mishra, MP, to attend the launch.

Ms. Mayawati decided to depute Mr. Mishra, considered to be the architect of the BSP’s social engineering in Uttar Pradesh, after Mr. Gowda spoke to her over telephone. The BSP’s decision to share the platform with the third front assumes immense political significance in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections.

Mr. Gowda also claimed that the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), which has parted ways with the Bharatiya Janata Party in Orissa, had also agreed to become a part of the third front. However, the BJD was unable to participate in the launch in view of certain developments in Bhubaneswar after Chief Minister Biju Patnaik won the confidence vote. Mr. Gowda said the political situation in the country was “fluid.”

“But I do not wish to speculate on how many more parties will become part of the third front in the run-up to the elections,” he said.

Leaders, including Communist Party of India (Marxist) general secretary Prakash Karat, Communist Party of India general secretary A.B. Bardhan, TDP president N. Chandrababu Naidu and TRS president Chandrashekar Rao, will be participating in the rally. Representatives of the Republican Party of India and the Forward Bloc are also expected to attend the function.

JD(S) spokesperson Y.S.V. Datta said AIADMK general secretary and former Tamil Nadu Chief MinisterJayalalithaa had written a letter to Mr. Gowda stating that she would depute party’s Rajya Sabha member Dr. Maithreyan for the convention.

Bangalore, Mar 2 : Third Front, to keep both NDA and UPA alliance at bay in the coming Lok Sabha elections, will be formed on March 12, former Prime Minister and Janata Dal (Secular) President H D Deve Gowda said today.|

Talking to newsmen here, he said that a massive rally would be held at Tumkur, 60 km from here, in which leaders of AIADMK, Left parties, Talugu Desam, and TRS are likely to attend and decide about formation of the Third Front to keep away Congress and communal BJP coming to power at the Centre.

Replying to a question, he said that he had already had parleys with Left Party leaders Prakash Karat, A B Bharadan and other political parties at New Delhi. “Since it was decided to float the Third Front from Karnataka it was decided to hold rally at Tumkur and announce formation of the Front,” he added.

Chennai, Feb 20 : Political equations are fast changing ahead of the General Elections. In Tamil Nadu, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) has offered to tie-up with the Congress.

AIADMK chief J Jayalalithaa said that the Congress that it must break away from its ally the Dravida Munnettra Kazhagam (DMK), if it wants to win the elections.

She said all parties who stand by the DMK stand to lose and their hopes lie in a tie-up with the AIADMK.

Jayalalithaa, who was attending the wedding of 61 of her party activists in Chennai on Thursday, told the Congress to you break away from the DMK and join the AIADMK-led alliance in Tamil Nadu. The AIADMK chief also hinted that her party had very cordial relations with the Congress when Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi were in power.

"The DMK is caught in a quicksand. Nobody can help it out. Those who want to help it will also be caught in the quicksand and the Congress should come out of web of the DMK," she was quoted as saying by PTI

Jayalalithaa has already tied up with the Communist Party of India-Marxist and Communist Party of India for the Lok Sabha elections.

"I am suggesting this because of the good relationship the AIADMK and Congress enjoyed in the past. If Congress does not listen, it will also be caught in the quicksand like the DMK," she said.

The DMK has been under fire, from even its allies, for its poor handling of the Sri Lankan Tamil issue.

In the 14th Lok Sabha all the 39 seats from Tamil Nadu are being held by the UPA.

Congress is a key kingmaker in Tamil Nadu. Traditionally, a Dravida party plus Congress has been the beneficiary in the state.

A CNN-IBN-CSDS poll has already predicted that the AIADMK is ahead in the race in the general elections 2009.

Traditionally, Tamil Nadu is all about alliances. The poll shows that while there is a dead heat between the DMK and the AIADMK, 13 per cent are with the Congress.

There is also the PMK (Pattali Makkal Katchi) which is as of now with the DMK alliance. So Chief Minister M Karunanidhi maybe down, but he is not out.

By G.V.L. Narasimha Rao

We have entered a year that promises to be one of intense political action. With national elections due around April-May, I have picked nine political personalities who, in my opinion, will influence the course of events in 2009. These nine will be the newsmakers of 2009 in the political arena.

Sonia Gandhi
Five years ago, United Progressive Alliance (UPA) chairperson Sonia Gandhizealously pursued the goal of stopping the National Democratic Alliance’s return to power by sewing up alliances, marking a departure from the Congress party’s stated preference for single-party rule. Under Gandhi’s stewardship, the Congress party has become a smart practitioner of the coalition politics it once loathed.

The Congress’ recent electoral successes in Delhi, Rajasthan, Mizoram and Jammu and Kashmir have infused fresh dynamism in the party in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls. Thanks to these electoral successes, the Congress-led UPA, which looked like a government on its way out in the wake of a surge in inflation (which has been easing) and incessant terror strikes last year, is back in the reckoning. Watch Gandhi’s moves in the new year as she lays out a plan to return the UPA to power at the Centre.

L.K. Advani
The leader of the rival National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and its prime ministerial candidate, L.K. Advani, has the seniority and political stature that can’t be matched by most claimants to the top job. In the 1990s, Advani scripted the ascension of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to power at the Centre by leveraging his organization-building skills, forging smart alliances and pitching the right issues.

Recent electoral defeats in Delhi and Rajasthan have shocked the saffron camp and the party has gone into introspection. These defeats might prove to be a blessing in disguise for the BJP if the party were to put its house in order in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls. As the BJP-led NDA has no presence or pre-poll partners in battleground states such as Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala—which account for 143 seats in the Lok Sabha—Advani’s alliance-building skills will be key in post-poll government formation. The seasoned campaigner is a man to watch out for in 2009 as he fights what probably will be the biggest political battle of his life.

Manmohan Singh
Five years ago, fortuitous circumstances led Manmohan Singhto become India’s prime minister. By pursuing the Indo-US nuclear deal zealously and parting ways with Left parties that opposed it, Singh has shown that he is no pushover and will stay in office only on his own terms. What is significant is that even after five years in the most exalted position, Singh continues to enjoy the complete trust of Gandhi.




Prakash Karat
Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPM) leader Prakash Karatregularly made the headlines in 2008 with his threats to the Manmohan Singh government. With the UPA charting its own course on the Indo-US nuclear deal and proving its parliamentary majority, Left parties appeared to have become irrelevant in national politics, as 2008 ended.

But, with the Left forging a third alternative with strong regional parties such as the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Karat will remain at political centrestage.

In the event that Left parties have a decisive role to play in government formation, it will be keenly watched whether Karat vigorously pursues the Left’s ideological opposition to the BJP or tries to get even with the UPA for the humiliation he and his comrades suffered on the Indo-US nuclear deal. Although the strength of the Left Front in the next Lok Sabha may decline, the influence of Communist parties and that of Karat is unlikely to wane.


Mayawati
Given her mercurial ways and lack of acceptability among a number of parties, some of whom also feel threatened by her exceptional rise, BSP leader and Uttar Pradesh chief minister Mayawatiis unlikely to be in the reckoning for the office of the prime minister.

In 2008, with her impressive electoral pursuits, the practitioner of Dalit identity politics impressed her Dalit admirers all over the country and shocked the educated urban electorate. She has made no secret of her ambition to be prime minister.

Scores of people asked me over the past few months if Mayawati had a realistic chance of becoming prime minister after this year’s Lok Sabha polls. They were hugely relieved to hear my assessment that her chances were extremely slim. Still, because people are so obsessed with Mayawati—her admirers and critics alike, though for conflicting reasons—she is a leader to be watched this year.


Pratibha Patil
So far, Pratibha Patil has been a quiet president and lucky not to have faced any constitutional challenges requiring presidential intervention. But, in the post-Lok Sabha poll scenario, her role in installing a new government could become critical. Whether she follows the well-established traditions in the formation of the next government or pursues a line to benefit the key actors who facilitated her elevation to the office of president would be keenly watched. In 2009, you are likely to see and hear the president more often than last year.




Regional bosses
In my opinion, there are three other regional leaders who will be in the news in the new year. They are J. Jayalalithaa of the AIADMK, Sharad Pawar of the Nationalist Congress Party and Chandrababu Naidu of the TDP.

They are not likely to be important because of the numbers that they will have in the next Lok Sabha, but their acceptability to the entire political spectrum.

All of them are likely to be in the news for playing a key role in the formation of the next government and its functioning.

This is my pick of nine politicians who will matter the most this year. Watch out for unfolding events in the year ahead to gauge how accurate or awfully inaccurate the assessment is.

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