In the forthcoming Assembly elections, the mystery called Rahul Gandhi is getting bigger and, shall we say, nastier. He has already triggered both jubilation and a fallout - depending on which side of the age barrier one is -- in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. By jettisoning greenhorn political paratroopers from his backyard in Delhi to the poll-mode front yard of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, the young Gandhi has stirred both a revolution and revulsion.
Rahul has quietly sent in his list of candidates for the polls to the two states - all young and aspiring Youth Congress leaders. Many established leaders have been pushed to the wayside, throwing a question mark on the April 13 elections.
Kerala, where the chances of the Congress-led UDF are bright, has 24 Youth Congress candidates `sponsored' by the AICC general secretary. This is a substantial number considering that the Congress is fighting only 81 seats. In Tamil Nadu, he has sent 10 names. The Congress is contesting 63 seats in TN.
In Kerala, senior partymen are upset at the political paratroopers. They cannot openly revolt and have to ensure that they work hard and see to it that the Youth Congress candidates win. Rahul Gandhi is also going to spend considerable time campaigning in Kerala to prove a point - that the time for change has come in God's Own Country.
But the youth in Kerala are elated. Said 27-year-old Hibi Eden, the chief of National Students' Union of India and a candidate from Erankulam: "Rahulji has done exactly what his late father Rajivji did 20 years ago in the 1991 elections. Rajivji gave tickets to 35 fresh faces including my late father George Eden. It made a lot of difference."
Hibi, incidentally, is the youngest candidate in Kerala.
Union Civil Aviation Minister K Vyalar Ravi, a Rahul loyalist, says the `boys' are all fighting in the Communist stronghold, not from safe Congress seats.
While in Kerala caste politics is not rampant, in neighbouring Tamil Nadu, where caste equations are strong, Congress leaders are upset with Rahul's boys. They are not able to see the logic behind why Jyothimani, a Gounder, has been fielded in the Thevar majority Karurur seat. Or Mahendran from Peravurarani without the backing of Union Minister G K Wasan.
Kerala and Tamil Nadu are going to be a big challenge for Rahul. There is a growing feeling in the Congress in Delhi that Rahul Gandhi is not prime-minister material and is committing one blunder after another, starting with Bihar.
All this has thrown a huge shadow of doubt on the future of a Rahul Gandhi as India's next prime minister. He has very few years to prove his theory of a young, `clean' and energetic brigade taking over the reins of the Congress. After all 2014 is not far off.
The recent WikiLeaks too has shown how many in the Congress consider Rahul as impervious and a man who prefers to furrow a lonely path without as much caring for seniors.
The US Embassy cables have given a 'brutally frank' assessment of Rahul saying that the "the heir-apparent of the Gandhi family dynasty," made a series of political gaffes in 2007 and this has loyalists cast a doubt on his ability.
According to an assessment by the United States Embassy in New Delhi, as published in The Hindu, loyalists are hoping that Priyanka steps in before the 2014 elections.
In a cable sent on April 23, 2007, Charge d'Affaires Geoffrey Pyatt said: "Congress insiders complain that he (Rahul Gandhi) is a neophyte who does not have what it takes to become Prime Minister. Their hopes have now shifted to yet another member of the Nehru dynasty, Rahul's sister Priyanka, as they await her entry into politics." (The Hindu).
Here are a few of Rahul's gaffes: On April 15, in a speech at a campaign rally, he had said: "I belong to the family which has never moved backwards, which has never gone back on its words. You know that when any member of my family had decided to do anything, he does it. Be it the freedom struggle, the division of Pakistan (???) or taking India into the 21st Century."
And on Babri Masjid: The structure "would have been protected had a member of the Gandhi family been in power."
Last year, Rahul created a storm by saying that Hindu extremists posed a greater threat to India than Muslim militants.
In WikiLeaks cables released by `The Guardian' on Dec 17, Rahul is reported to have met US ambassador to India Timothy Roemer in a luncheon meeting. In the meeting, he had warned Roemer that although "there was evidence of some support for [Islamic terrorist group Laskar-e-Taiba] among certain elements in India's indigenous Muslim community, the bigger threat may be the growth of radicalised Hindu groups, which create religious tensions and political confrontations with the Muslim community".
The cable goes on to say: "Responding to the Ambassador's query about Lashkar-e-Taiba's activities in the region and immediate threat to India, Rahul said there was evidence of some support for the group among certain elements in India's indigenous Muslim community. However, Gandhi warned, the bigger threat may be the growth of radicalized Hindu groups, which create religious tensions and political confrontations with the Muslim community."
Rahul is seen as a man who is 'out of touch' and has 'no close friends or advisors' because he often strays from his briefs and script given by his team. He is seen by some as 'arrogant and rude and doesn't accept guidance from anyone.'
The Cable goes on to say that a few feel that Rahul 'has no future, no talent for politics and will never be PM, as he has done nothing for the past three years.' Even if Congress wants to make Rahul PM (in 2014), it would not be able to do so. This is because the party will not have an absolute majority and must rely on its coalition partners to stay in power.
The Comment section of the cable, cattily titled 'Son Set' and quoted in The Hindu, expressed this view: "In any event, regardless of the outcome of the UP elections, Rahul has made an uneven entry into active politics. While crowds at his "road show" events are often large, Rahul has not yet demonstrated that he has the charisma required to make it in Indian politics."
In an earlier cable dated October 17, 2006, an official said: "Heir apparent Rahul Gandhi continues to languish with little popular support, but we are told that his mother remains determined to install him as PM at the 'appropriate' time."
But has Rahul's moment already come and gone? Is he a political dude or a dud? Wait for the results in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. This will give a fair indication on the `future PM of India'.
Source: India Syndicate